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Just 48 hours to go.

The English side's opening match in Australia starts on Friday morning.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has centred around the apparent difficulty of batting successfully, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have recently proved to be the fastest, most bouncy and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their fast-bowling unit largely intact, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

From that point, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australian fast bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'leading trio'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

In addition to Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, including a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to look beyond their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef went through partners faster than Watford change coaches.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a factor in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, most likely back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Right place, right time?

The English team have a depressing habit of being defeated in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia were defeated once, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics indicate the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|